In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic rocked economies worldwide. Millions of people lost their jobs, and many businesses struggled to survive or shut down completely. Governments responded with some of the largest economic relief packages in history— the United States alone spent $2.2 trillion on a first round of relief. So where did all this money come from?
2020年3月,全球2019冠状病毒疾病流行。数百万人失去了工作,许多企业挣扎着生存或完全倒闭。各国政府做出了历史上规模最大的一些经济救济计划——仅美国就在第一轮救济上花费了2.2万亿美元。那么这些钱是从哪里来的呢?
Most countries have a central bank that manages the money supply and is independent from the government to prevent political interference. The government can implement many types of economic policy, like decreasing people's taxes and creating jobs through public infrastructure projects, but it actually can’t just increase the money supply. The central bank determines how much money is in circulation at a time.
大多数国家都有一家中央银行管理货币供应,独立于政府以防止政治干预。政府可以实施多种类型的经济政策,比如降低人民税收,通过公共基础设施项目创造就业机会,但实际上它不能仅仅增加货币供应量。中央银行决定一次有多少货币在流通。
So why can’t central banks authorize the printing of unlimited money to help an economy in crisis?
那么,为什么中央银行不能授权印刷无限量的货币来帮助陷入危机的经济呢?
They could, but that’s a short-term solution that doesn’t necessarily boost economic growth in the long-term, and can actually hurt the economy. Why? With more money in circulation, manufacturers of goods like food, clothing, and cars could respond to demand simply by raising prices, rather than manufacturing more of these goods and creating new jobs in the process.
他们可以,但这是一个短期解决方案,从长期来看不一定能促进经济增长,实际上可能会损害经济。为什么?随着流通资金的增加,食品、服装和汽车等商品的制造商可以通过提高价格来应对需求,而不是制造更多此类商品并在此过程中创造新的就业机会。
This would mean you could no longer buy as much with the same amount of money— a situation known as inflation. A little bit of inflation, about 2% a year, is considered a sign of economic health, but more can quickly derail an economy.
这意味着你不能再用同样的钱买那么多东西了——这种情况被称为通货膨胀。一点点的通货膨胀,大约每年2%,被认为是经济健康的标志,但更多的通货膨胀会很快使经济脱轨。
In recent decades, central banks have tried an approach called quantitative easing to infuse the economy with cash while maintaining a low risk of severe inflation. In this approach, a central bank increases cash flow by purchasing another entity’s bonds. Anyone can buy bonds from corporations or governments.
近几十年来,各国央行尝试了一种称为量化宽松的方法,向经济注入现金,同时保持严重通胀的低风险。在这种方法中,中央银行通过购买另一实体的债券来增加现金流。任何人都可以从公司或政府购买债券。
When you buy a bond, you’re essentially loaning money to the company— or government— with the promise that they’ll pay it back later with interest. This is why buying bonds is sometimes referred to as buying debt.
当你购买债券时,你本质上是在向公司或政府借钱,并承诺他们稍后会偿还利息。这就是为什么购买债券有时被称为购买债务。
When an individual buys a bond, they're using money that's already in circulation. But when the central bank buys a bond, it essentially creates cash, supplying money that didn’t exist before in exchange for bonds.
当个人购买债券时,他们使用的是已经流通的货币。但当中央银行购买债券时,它实质上创造了现金,提供了以前不存在的货币来交换债券。
Both during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and again in 2020, the United States’ central bank, the Federal Reserve, bought bonds from the US government called treasury bonds. Historically, many people have purchased these bonds as a safe form of investment, knowing the US government will pay them back with interest.
在2008—2009年金融危机期间以及2020年,美国中央银行美联储(Federal Reserve)都从美国政府购买了称为国债的债券。从历史上看,许多人购买这些债券是一种安全的投资形式,他们知道美国政府会以利息偿还这些债券。
In early 2020, the Federal Reserve pledged to buy unlimited treasury bonds, loaning the U.S. government an unprecedented amount of money— cash that the government used to fund relief efforts like stimulus checks and unemployment benefits.
在2020年初,美联储承诺购买无限量的美国国债,向美国政府提供前所未有的贷款——政府用于资助经济刺激支票和失业救济金等救济措施的现金。
This isn’t equivalent to simply printing money, though it may sound similar. Because of the way bonds are priced, by buying so many, the Federal Reserve effectively lowered the return on them, which incentivizes other investors to lend to riskier entities— like small and midsize companies— in order to get a decent return.
这并不等同于简单地印钞,尽管听起来可能类似。由于债券的定价方式,美联储通过购买这么多债券,有效地降低了债券的回报率,从而激励其他投资者向风险较高的实体(如中小企业)贷款,以获得可观的回报。
Encouraging lending this way should help companies of all sizes borrow money to funnel into projects and hires, boosting the economy over time in addition to helping the government supply people with urgently needed cash in the short term.
鼓励这种方式的贷款应该有助于各种规模的公司借钱用于项目和招聘,随着时间的推移,除了帮助政府在短期内为人们提供急需的现金外,还可以提振经济。
The Federal Reserve’s pledge to buy unlimited government debt has raised some questions— and eyebrows. In theory, this means the government could issue more bonds, which the central bank would purchase. The government could then use the money from the new bonds to pay off the old bonds, effectively meaning the government never pays back its debt to the central bank.
美联储承诺购买无限量政府债券,这引发了一些疑问和质疑。理论上,这意味着政府可以发行更多的债券,央行将购买这些债券。然后,政府可以使用新债券的资金来偿还旧债券,这实际上意味着政府永远不会偿还其对央行的债务。
Citing this and other theoretical scenarios, some economists have raised concerns that a central bank buying government debt is a subversion of a system designed to protect the economy. Others have insisted these measures are necessary, and have so far helped stabilize economies. Though quantitative easing has become a lot more common in recent years, it’s still relatively new, and potential consequences are still unfolding.
一些经济学家引用这一假设和其他理论假设,提出了央行购买政府债务是对旨在保护经济的体系的颠覆的担忧。其他人坚持认为这些措施是必要的,到目前为止已经帮助稳定了经济。尽管近年来量化宽松变得更加普遍,但它仍然相对较新颖,潜在的后果仍在显现。