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It has been a bad year for economic forecasters.So bad that royalty wants to know what went wrong.“Why did no one see it coming?”Britain's Queen Elizabeth asked during a visit to the London School of Economics this month.

Her Majesty's question has sparked a series of ludicrous claims about the prescience of individual forecasters.

“Although bankers with their fancy MBAs appear to have been dumbfounded by the financial crisis，regular attendees to Gresham College's free public lectures in central London，were not，”maintained one press release this month，citing a talk given in November 2002 by Avinash Persaud.But the lecture is as disappointing as the claims are inflated.“Despite record corporate bankruptcies，weak economies and a market meltdown，banks are generally safe”was Prof.Persaud's conclusion.

Giulio Tremonti，Italy's finance minister，raised the predictive bar last week when he said Pope Benedict XVI was the first to foresee the crisis.A 1985 paper showed，according to Mr Tremonti，“the prediction that an undisciplined economy would collapse by its own rules.”

Much closer to the truth was the more mundane assessment by Charlie Bean，the Bank of England's deputy governor，who noted that elements of the global economy had troubled lots of economists and policymakers for a long time.“We knew they were unsustainable and worried that the unwinding might be disorderly，though I don't think anyone could have guessed the course that events would actually take，”he said.

There is no doubt that the credit crisis，which has morphed into recession across advanced economies，leaves most economic forecasters with ample egg on their studious faces.But policymakers，too，have reasons to cringe.

In his Senate nomination hearing of 2005，Ben Bernanke，the Federal Reserve chairman，said the US financial system had already benefited from a series of crises that had reinforced its ability to cope with difficult times.“The depths，the liquidity，the flexibility of the financial markets has increased greatly，”he said.

Policymakers in Europe have had equal problems in foreseeing events.Jean-Claude Trichet，European Central Bank president，told four newspapers in mid-July:“Our baseline scenario is that we will have a trough in the profile of growth in the euro area in the second and third quarters of this year and，following this，a progressive return to ongoing moderate growth.”Instead，Europe is staring at the biggest recession

Britain's nasty recession was not foreseen by Mervyn King，Bank of England governor.In May，he insisted:“It's quite possible that at some point we may get an odd quarter or two of negative growth.But recession is not the central projection at all.”

International organizations，the great new hope of world leaders to provide an early warning of future problems，are just as fallible.The International Monetary Fund's spring 2007 forecast gushed at the success of the world economy.“Overall risks to the outlook seem less threatening than six months ago，”its World Economic Outlook purred，in prose overseen by Simon Johnson，its then chief economist.

Among independent economists the record has been just as bad.The forecasts for growth compiled every month by Consensus Economics show a persistent move towards pessimism as Wall Street and City professionals catch up with events.

Even permanent bears did not see the full bursting of the credit bubble linked with the commodity boom.Nouriel Roubini，the global“Dr Doom”who got much of the crisis right，has also persistently revised his forecasts lower as the credit crunch has bitten harder.

The media cannot claim better foresight.While some commentators have found their predictions of crisis realised，none got the entire story right and many were lucky，having predicted 10 of the last two crises that eventually materialized.But others'luck does not diminish the embarrassment I feel when I read my own assessment from July that recession“might happen，but Britain is not there yet，and not even close.”As everyone now knows，Britain was there，even at the time.

Though there is great entertainment in looking back at the silly things economists have said，more is to be gained by examining the particular failings that contributed to forecasters'general inability to warn of the current mess.

First is the unforeseen，but now evident，fragility of the global economy in the face of a systemic banking collapse.Jim O'Neill，chief economist of Goldman Sachs，says the failure of Lehman Brothers was“a game changer，”before which his forecasts“were panning out OK”and after which“we have been scrambling to keep up.”

Second，as Stephen King，chief economist of HSBC，says:“Almost all economicmodelsassumethatthefinancialsystem‘works’.”Economists in general did not foresee how the looser monetary policy of the early part of the decade could lead to an unprecedented credit expansion.

Third was the deep squeeze on household and corporate inComes from the commodity boom of the first half of 2008，which almost no one predicted.This weakened the non-financial sector before banks had any chance to repair the damage from the subprime crisis and was a crucial element of the disaster that unfurled this autumn.

Fourth，most economic models suggest the demand for money will be stable，but banks and households have now begun to hoard cash.This threatens to make monetary policy ineffective as a tool for economic recovery，something that is not generally factored into forecasting models.

Fifth is an over-reliance on the output gap—the difference between the level of output and an estimate of what is sustainable—in forecasting.That allowed policymakers to believe everything was fine in the economy，because inflation was under control and growth was not excessive.

Sixth is the natural tendency to seek rationales for events as they unfold，rather than question whether they are sustainable.Kenneth Rogoff，a Harvard professor who is also a former IMF chief economist，thinks the tendency to look on the bright side is particularly prevalent on Wall Street，where“it is difficult to make a living as a mega-bear，”he says.

Academics and the Fed also fell into the trap of rationalizing unsustainable features of the global economy.In 2005 a paper by Ricardo Hausmann and Federico Sturzenegger of Harvard caused excitement about the possibility that financial“dark matter”would prevent a big bang in the world economy.The failure to believe in this dark stuff，the authors concluded，made“analysts predict crises that，for good reason，remain elusive.”

Mention must also be given to the notable voices of doom，who got important bits of the puzzle correct even if the timing or other details eluded them.Prof Roubini，who now runs the consultancy RGE Monitor，wrote a paper with Brad Setser in August 2004 predicting that the world's trade imbalances were unsustainable and likely to“crack the system in the next three to four years”.He has been prescient in understanding the links between financial markets and the real economy.

William White，the former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements，the central bankers'bank in Basel，Switzerland，was a persistent critic of lax monetary policy and the failure to stem credit expansion.Prof Rogoff also spotted the dangers of unsustainable global economic expansion in a 2004 paper with Maurice Obstfeld.In more recent work with Carmen Reinhart he has highlighted how policymakers fell into the“this time it's different”trap that dates back to England's 14th-century default.

Prof Persaud has made an honest living for many years warning about the fallibility of value-at-risk models and the tendency for them to encourage herd behaviour.And in the FT's new year survey of economists for 2008，Wynne Godley of Cambridge University，also a permanent bear，said:“I think the seizing up of financial markets may well result in a collapse in lending in the US to the non-financial sector so large that it causes a recession deeper and more stubborn than any other for decades—and deeper than anyone else is expecting.”Quite.

Policymakers，too，have been far from consistently wrong.Mr Trichet dines out on stories of how he predicted the crisis and cites a Financial Times article as evidence that the warnings were not just the sort of throwaway remarks about risk that central bankers always give.Mr King warned for years about the risks evident in the global economy and the IMF repeatedly warned about the unsustainable level of house prices.

Willem Buiter，whose blog on FT.com was praised on Tuesday in parliament by the Bank of England governor，warns not to be too impressed by some forecasts that have turned out to be true，because they were lucky，not wise.“Hindsight is useless，”Prof Buiter insists.“One has to look at the information available at the time and the arguments used at the time.”

That is certainly valid and should form the basis of any judgment of forecasts or policy decisions taken.But it is also incumbent on the consumers of economic forecasts to be aware of what economic models can and cannot do.They should focus on the risks rather than purely the central forecasts.

Goldman's Mr O'Neill says private sector economists should try harder to under-promise and over-deliver.Despite all the talent and the most sophisticated models，they“didn't and couldn't have predicted the Lehman‘event’.”

If only society had listened to the younger Cardinal Ratzinger more than 20 years ago—before，of course，it was reasonable to forecast he would be the next Pope.

In the 1980s，it seemed that computers held the key to economic forecasting，writes John Kay.With large models and sufficient processing power，predictions would beCome more and more accurate.

This dream did not last long.We now understand that economies are complex，dynamic，non-linear systems in which small differences to initial conditions can make large differences to final outComes—the proverbial flapping of a butterfly's wings that causes a hurricane.

So economic crystal ball-gazing remains unscientific.The trend is the forecaster's friend.Extrapolation assumes that the future will be like the past，only more so.We project current preoccupations—the rise of China and India，global terror，climate change—with exaggerated speed and to an exaggerated degree.

We forget that our preoccupations change.The people who worry about these issues today would 20 years ago have worried about the coming economic hegemony of Japan and the cold war.These issues were resolved in ways that few predicted.

It is a safe prediction—and the only one I shall make—that the topics that grab our attention 20 years from now will differ from those that consume us today and，if anyone has guessed what they are，it is only by accident.The future is unknowable.As Karl Popper observed，to predict the creation of the wheel is to invent it.To anticipate a new political force or economic theory，or even a new product，is to take the main step in bringing it into being.

If extrapolation is the forecaster's friend，mean reversion is the forecaster's crutch.Much of the time，you can predict that next year's figure will be somewhere between this year's level and the long-run average.But mean reversion never anticipates anything out of the ordinary.Every few years，out-of-the-ordinary things happen.They just have.

Still，you might think there would be large rewards for those who succeed in anticipating these events.You would be wrong.People who worried before 2000 that the“new economy”was a bubble，or warned of the terrorist threat before September 11 2001，or saw that credit expansion was out of control in 2006，were not popular.They were killjoys.

Nor were they popular after these events.If these people had been right，then others had been blind or negligent，and the latter preferred to represent themselves as victims of unforeseeable events.As John Maynard Keynes observed，it is usually better to be conventionally wrong than unconventionally right.

1.Why do you think British Queen's question sparked so many claims on economic forecasts?

2.What is meant by“having predicted 10 out of the last two crises that eventually materialized”?

3.“Financial‘dark matter’would prevent a big bang in the world economy.”Discuss the meaning of this sentence.

4.“To predict the creation of the wheel is to invent it.”Discuss it in connection with the idiom“to reinvent the wheel”.

London School of Economics:The London School of Economics and Political Science(frequently referred to as London School of Economics，or simply LSE)is one of the most prestigious institutions of higher learning in the world.The school's more than 7，000 students can choose courses of study such as economics，as well as international relations，accounting，sociology，and information systems.The school is also known as one of the leading centers for research in the social sciences.Founded in 1895 by Beatrice and Sidney Webb.LSE counts more than 13 Nobel prize winners among its alumni and staff.The school is part of the University of London system.伦敦经济学院创立于1895年，1900年成为伦敦大学的一部分。坐落于伦敦市中心，距离该学院不到一英里就是政府、法律、金融和传媒中心。伦敦经济学院在社会科学的教学和研究方面都取得了令人瞩目的学术成就，拥有多项处于领先地位的成果，全英商科排名第二位。

Avinash Persaud:He is an elected member of the Council of the Royal Economic Society(2006-2010).He is a Governor and Member of the Council of the London School of Economics(2004-2008)and served on its Investments and Audit committees.He is a Visiting Fellow at the Centre for Financial Analysis and Policy，at the Judge Institute，University of Cambridge and is a Member of the Scientific Committee of the International Centre for Money and Banking Reports on the World Economy(Geneva，Switzerland).Prof Persaud has published widely in academic and professional journals including International Finance，Oxford Review of Economic Policy，Central Banking and the Financial Regulator and his work has appeared in the financial press including the The Economist and BusinessWeek.He has authored a dozen“Op Ed”pieces for the Financial Times.

But the lecture is disappointing as the claims are inflated:英语中作者有时将两件看似不相关的事物进行对比，表示两事物某两个方面的程度一样:这次讲座令人失望，正如那些预言水分太多一样。再如“He is so macho as she is so feminine”。

Pope Benedict XVI:Pope from 2005.Born Joseph Ratzinger，he was ordained in 1951 and received a doctorate in theology at the University of Munich in 1953.Thereafter he pursued a career as a theologian and teacher at various universities.During the Second Vatican Council(1962-1965)he served as an expert adviser and an advocate of reform.In 1977 he was appointed archbishop of Munich；three months later he was made a cardinal.As prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith from 1981 to 2005，he enforced doctrinal uniformity in the church and served as a close adviser of Pope John PaulⅡ.He was faced with numerous challenges when he beCome pope，including a decline in church attendance and in the number of new priests，deep divisions over the direction of the church，and the lingering effects of a sexual-abuse scandal involving priests in various parts of the world.教宗本笃十六世，1927年4月16日出生于巴伐利亚。是现任天主教教宗，2005年4月19日被选为教宗，2005年4月24日正式登基。之前为德国籍枢机主教，也是有资格的枢机主教当中两位并非由若望·保禄二世册封的枢机(他是由保禄六世册封)。他是第八位德国籍教宗，能讲10种语言。原为教廷信理部部长、宗座圣经委员会主席、国际神学委员会主席及枢机团团长。

Goldman Sachs:高盛集团The Goldman Sachs Group，Inc.，or simply Goldman Sachs(NYSE:GS)，is a bank holding company that engages in investment banking，securities services and investment management.GoldmanSachswasfoundedin1869，andis headquartered in the Lower Manhattan area of New York City at 85 Broad Street but has its secondary office at 30 Hudson Street，Jersey City，New Jersey.The firm has offices in all global financial centers and acts as a financial advisor and money manager for corporations，governments，and wealthy families around the world.Goldman offers its clients mergers＆acquisitions advice，underwriting services，asset management，and engages in proprietary trading，and private equity deals.It is a primary dealer in the U.S.Treasury securities market.Former Goldman Sachs employees such as Henry Paulson and Robert Rubin have held high positions in the federal government，regardless of which party was in the White House.高盛集团是一家国际领先的投资银行和证券公司，向全球提供广泛的投资、咨询和金融服务，拥有大量的多行业客户，包括私营公司、金融企业、政府机构以及个人。高盛集团成立于1869年，是全世界历史最悠久及规模最大的投资银行之一，总部设在纽约，并在东京、伦敦和香港设有分部，在23个国家拥有41个办事处。

Lehman Brothers:In what could be called the collapse heard round the world，venerable investment bank Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy in September 2008，ending a reign of some 160 years in financial services.One of the top bulge-bracket firms and perennially among the industry leaders in M＆A advice，debt and equity underwriting，and global finance suffered a knockout punch and reported nearly$7 billion in losses after becoming embroiled in the global credit crisis of 2007 and 2008.After acquisition talks with foreign investors fell through，Lehman attempted to restructure itself，including selling off operations for cash.The plan was too little too late，though，and Lehman filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.雷曼兄弟公司是为全球公司、机构、政府和投资者的金融需求提供服务的一家全方位、多元化投资银行。雷曼兄弟公司通过其由设于全球48座城市之办事处组成的一个紧密连接的网络积极地参与全球资本市场，这一网络由设于纽约的世界总部和设于伦敦、东京和香港的地区总部统筹管理。2008年9月15日，在美国财政部、美国银行以及英国巴克莱银行相继放弃收购谈判后，雷曼兄弟公司宣布申请破产保护，负债达6 130亿美元。

HSBC:总部设于伦敦的汇丰集团是全球规模最大的银行及金融机构之一。汇丰集团在欧洲、亚太地区、美洲、中东及非洲76个国家和地区拥有约9 500间附属机构。汇丰在伦敦证券交易所、香港证券交易所、纽约证券交易所、巴黎证券交易所及百慕达证券交易所等证券交易所上市，全球股东约有200 000，分布于100个国家和地区。雇有232 000名员工。HSBC Holdings PLC is a public limited company incorporated in England and Wales in 1990，and headquartered in London since 1993.As of 2009，it is both the world's largest banking group and the world's 6th largest company according to a composite measure by Forbes magazine.The group was founded from The Hong kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation based in Hong Kong，the acronym of which led to the current name.Today，whilst no single geographical area dominates the group's earnings，Hong Kong still continues to be a significant source of its inCome.Recent acquisitions and expansion in China are returning HSBC to part of its roots.HSBC has an enormous operational base in Asia and significant lending，investment，and insurance activities around the world.The company has a global reach and financial fundamentals matched by few other banking or financial multinationals.

Dark matter:Material that is believed to make up(along with dark energy)more than 90％of the mass of the universe but is not readily visible because it neither emits nor reflects electromagnetic radiation，such as light or radio signals.Its existence would explain gravitational anomalies seen in the motion and distribution of galaxies.Dark matter can be detected only indirectly，e.g.，through the bending of light rays from distant stars by its gravity.

Big Bang:The Big Bang is a cosmological model of the initial conditions and subsequent development of the universe.It is supported by the most comprehensive and accurate explanations from current scientific evidence and observation.As used by cosmologists，the term Big Bang generally refers to the idea that the universe has expanded from a primordial hot and dense initial condition at some finite time in the past，and continues to expand to this day.

Value at risk:A technique used to estimate the probability of portfolio losses based on the statistical analysis of historical price trends and volatilities.VaR is commonly used by banks，security firms and companies that are involved in trading energy and other commodities.VaR is able to measure risk while it happens and is an important consideration when firms make trading or hedging decisions.

Herd behavior:Herd behavior describes how individuals in a group can act together without planned direction.The term pertains to the behavior of animals in herds，flocks，and schools，and to human conduct during activitiessuchasstockmarketbubblesandcrashes，street demonstrations，sporting events，episodes of mob violence and even everyday decision making，judgment and opinion forming.

Flapping of a butterfly's wings or Butterfly effect(physics):In a chaotic system，the ability of miniscule changes in initial conditions(such as the flap of a butterfly's wings)to have far-reaching，large-scale effects on the development of the system(such as the course of weather a continent away).

The idea that one butterfly could eventually have a far-reaching ripple effect on subsequent historic events seems first to have appeared in a 1952 short story by Ray Bradbury about time travel although Lorenz made the term popular.In 1961，Lorenz was using a numerical computer model to rerun a weather prediction，when，as a shortcut on a number in the sequence，he entered the decimal.506 instead of entering the full.506127 the computer would hold.The result was a completely different weather scenario.Lorenz published his findings in a 1963 paper for the New York Academy of Sciences noting that“One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct，one flap of a seagull's wings could change the course of weather forever.”Later speeches and papers by Lorenz used the more poetic butterfly.According to Lorenz，upon failing to provide a title for a talk he was to present at the 139th meeting of the American Association for the AdvanComent of Science in 1972，Philip Merilees concocted Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas as a title.

Although a butterfly flapping its wings has remained constant in the expressionofthisconcept，thelocationofthebutterfly，the consequences，and the location of the consequences have varied widely.The phrase refers to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that may ultimately alter the path of a tornado or delay，accelerate or even prevent the occurrence of a tornado in a certain location.The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system，which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale alterations of events.Had the butterfly not flapped its wings，the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different.While the butterfly does not cause the tornado，the flap of its wings is an essential part of the initial conditions resulting in a tornado.

Crystal ball gazing:Divination by gazing into a crystal ball.The making of determinations or predictions using questionable or unscientifiComeans.

Karl Popper:(1902-1994)Austrian-British philosopher of natural and social science.In The Logic of Scientific Discovery(1934)，he rejected the traditional conception of induction，which held that a scientific hypothesis may be verified through the accumulation of confirming observations，arguing instead that scientific hypotheses can at best only be falsified.

“New economy”:A buzzword describing new，high-growth industries that are on the cutting edge of technology and are the driving force of economic growth.The new economy is commonly believed to have started in the late 1990s，as high tech tools，such as the internet，and increasingly powerful computers，began penetrating the consumer and business marketplace.The thought that a“new economy”had arrived was evident in the hysteria surrounding the tech-bubble of the late'90s and early 2000s.Without fully considering macroeconomic factors，investors and financial institutions bid up stock prices to unprecedented highs.Although the tech bubble has long since burst，the remaining firms have remained very innovative and at the forefront of technology.Companies in the new economy are heavily involved in the internet and biotech industries，but the ripple effects of new technologies has spread out to all other industries as well.

经济分析指数:An economic indicator(or business indicator)is a statistic about the economy.Economic indicators allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance.Economic indicators include various indices，earnings reports，and economic summaries，such as unemployment，housing starts，Consumer Price Index(a measure for inflation)，industrial production，bankruptcies，Gross Domestic Product，broadband internet penetration，retail sales，stock market prices，and money supply changes.Economic indicators are primarily studied in a branch of macroeconomics called“business cycles”.

Mean reversion:在一种趋势内，股票价格呈持续上升或下降，称之为均值回避(Mean aversion)。当出现相反趋势时就呈均值回归(Mean reversion)Mean reversion is a mathematical methodology commonly used for stock investing，but it can be applied to other processes.In general terms the idea is that both a stock's high and low prices are temporary，and that a stock's price will tend to have an average price over time.Mean reversion involves first identifying the trading range for a stock，and then computing the average price using analytical techniques as it relates to assets and earnings.When the current market price is less than the average price，the stock is considered attractive for purchase，with the expectation that the price will rise.When the current market price is above the average price，the market price is expected to fall.In other words，deviations from the average price are expected to revert to the average.

Credit crunch:信贷紧缩A credit crunch(also known as a credit squeeze，finance crunch or credit crisis)is a reduction in the general availability of loans(or credit)or a sudden tightening of the conditions required to obtain a loan from the banks.A credit crunch generally involves a reduction in the availability of credit independent of a rise in official interest rates.In such situations，the relationship between credit availability and interest rates has implicitly changed，such that either credit beComes less available at any given official interest rate，or there ceases to be a clear relationship between interest rates and credit availability(i.e.credit rationing occurs).Many times，a credit crunch is accompanied by a flight to quality by lenders and investors，as they seek less risky investments(often at the expense of small to medium size enterprises).信贷紧缩是指经营贷款的金融机构提高贷款标准，以高于市场利率水平的条件发放贷款，甚至不愿发放贷款，从而导致信贷增长下降，信贷资金难以满足社会再生产的合理需求的现象。信贷紧缩条件下，企业通过银行系统获得的资金趋于下降，尤其是中小企业受到的信贷约束影响更大。这是因为中小企业的信用级别低，而且缺乏银行之外的其他融资渠道。信贷紧缩一旦形成，实体经济部门的资金缺乏可能会使经济活动循环发生“中断”，尤其是持续的信贷紧缩会造成严重的经济衰退。

Subprime crisis:次贷危机是指由美国次级房屋信贷行业违约剧增、信用紧缩问题而于2007年夏季开始引发的国际金融市场上的震荡、恐慌和危机。为缓解次贷风暴及信用紧缩所带来的各种经济问题，稳定金融市场，美联储几月来大幅降低了联邦基金利率，并打破常规为投资银行等金融机构提供直接贷款及其他融资渠道。美国政府还批准了耗资逾1 500亿美元的刺激经济方案，另外放宽了对房利美、房地美(即美国两家最大的房屋抵押贷款公司)等金融机构融资、准备金额度等方面的限制。在美国房贷市场继续低迷、法拍屋大幅增加的情况下，美国财政部于2008年9月7日宣布以高达2 000亿美元的可能代价，接管了濒临破产的房利美和房地美。次级抵押贷款是一个高风险、高收益的行业。与传统意义上的标准抵押贷款的区别在于，次级抵押贷款对贷款者信用记录和还款能力要求不高，贷款利率相应地比一般抵押贷款高很多。那些因信用记录不好或偿还能力较弱而被银行拒绝提供优质抵押贷款的人，会申请次级抵押贷款购买住房。The subprime mortgage crisis is an ongoing financial crisis triggered by a dramatic rise in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures in the United States，with major adverse consequences for banks and financial markets around the globe.The crisis，which has its roots in the closing years of the 20th century，beCome apparent in 2007 and has exposed pervasive weaknesses in financial industry regulation and the global financial system.

Nomination hearing before the Committee on Banking，Housing，and Urban Affairs，U.S.Senate

Raised the predictive bar:让我们再关注一下新闻英语中短语、习语的活用。习语“raise the bars”是说提高门槛、程度，之间加入范畴词“predictive”等指预测本领又道高一尺，当然其中也不乏调侃。又如同样在本文中出现的(Financial“dark matter”would prevent a big bang in the world economy)。这其中有“dark matter”以及“big bang”的活用。有趣的是，本文中还有the proverbial flapping of a butterfly's wings that causes a hurricane以及economic crystal ball gazing。Flapping of a butterfly's wings that causes a hurricane就是众人熟知的“蝴蝶效应”，用上“proverbial”自然让读者更明白其比喻之意了。其实，proverbial往往就是一个短语活用的标签，如finding the proverbial needle，proverbialstraw，proverbialiceberg，proverbialteapot，proverbial bathwater等。在特定的语境下，会让读者分别联想起a needle in a haystack，the last straw，the tip of the iceberg，a tempest in a teapot以及throw the baby out with the bathwater，作者不用和盘托出，而是用proverbial提示，这既使得该成语在新语境下产生新义，又使得语言更显活力。

Ⅰ.According to the article，determine which statements are true and which are false.

1.Queen Elizabeth's question was followed by lots of claims that some had already predicted the current economic collapse in 2008.

2.Both economists and policy makers are in an embarrassing situation as regards the forecast of the credit crisis and financial meltdown.

3.Dr Doom refers to anyone who constantly revises his/her forecasts.

4.The media luckily have done a better job on forecasts，though with some embarrassment.

5.In 2008 banking collapse，the fall of Lehman Brothers was considered to change the generally accepted rules of the game.

1.In this article，the writer's attitude toward the IMF's spring 2007 forecast is.

A.fallible

B.glowing

C.sarcastic

D.matter-of-factly

2.The terms“bears”and“mega-bears”used in this article probably.

A.is used in contrast with“bulls”in discussing stock market fluctuations

B.mean pessimistic people

C.both A and B

D.neither A nor B

3.Which of the following is true about the embarrassment of the economic/financial mess?

A.Economists and policymakers are not consistently wrong.

B.Consumers of economic forecasts should be clear about the limits of economic models and the risks involved.

C.Private sector economists are urged to deliver more than they promise.

D.All of the above.

4.What is true about Pope Benedict XVI?

A.Italian financial minister claimed the Pope was the first to foresee the economic crisis.

B.He has been the Pope for 30 years.

C.Cardinal Ratzinger and the Pope refer to the same person.

D.Both A and C.

5.This article argues that.

A.economic prediction is a difficult task open to risks and errors

B.negligent people generally are thankful to those who anticipate events right

C.neither A nor B

D.both A and B