Will China Be a Leader in Robotics?

By Jaap vanEtten

 

1 This week is the big WorldRobot Conference in Beijing, with many newspapers and websites writing aboutrobots and the sector’s market potential.

 

2 However for years robots havealready been ‘big business’. The global industrial robotics business was worth$10.7 billion in 2014, according to the International Federation of Robotics(IFR). China was the largest market, shipping over 57,000 industrial robots,with Japan in second, followed by the United States. According to IFR forecaststhe sales figures in China are expected to continue to rise dramatically,totaling 150,000 units by 2018.

 

3 During the past decades, Chinawas known for its seemingly limitless supply of low-wage workers. China’semergence as an automation hub contradicts many assumptions about robots andthe global economy. However, earlier this year China published its nationalplan ‘Made in China 2025’(中国制造2025). This plan aims to modernize China’s industry, and paysspecial attention to its manufacturing processes, including shiftinglabor-intensive work to robots.

 

4 It is said that by the end of2015 or early 2016 China will release a five-year development plan (as an annexto ‘Made in China 2025’) for its indigenous robot industry, ambitiously aimingto more than double the market share of made-in-China robots to 50 percent by2020.

 

5 In 2014, Chinese factoriesaccounted for about a quarter of the global ranks of industrial robots (>50percent increase over 2013) and this boom is likely to continue. According tothe IFR, it will have more installed manufacturing robots than any othercountry by 2017.

 

6 Currently, the global market isdominated by industrial robots, having about an 80 percent market share. Theuse of robots currently accounts for 10 percent of the manufacturing process,but that figure is expected to rise to 20 percent by 2025. Many companiestherefore still focus their investments on the development of industrialrobotics. But it is clear that the market of service robots will surpass thatof industrial robotics in the future. We already see that the application ofrobots is extending from manufacturing industry into the service sector, includingmedicine and healthcare not just domestic applications.

 

7 It is interesting to see at theconference that Chinese researchers have already mastered technology for thewhole industrial chain of service robotics. They have developed various servicerobots, including those capable of cleaning, cooking, and helping the elderlyand handicapped.

 

8 But China still has a long wayto go, according to a general manager of a government-backed technology firm inSanming, Fujian province:

“Key parts of industrial robots, such as sensors and motors, are stillreliant on imports, and not many robot makers are ready for mass production.”

 

 

9 There are more than 1,000robot-related firms across China, but quality — not quantity — is the robotsector’s biggest challenge, according to Qu Daokui, chairman of Siasun Robotand Automation.

 

10 More and more factories in theindustrial hub in South China are starting to introduce robots in a bid toreplace human labor. There are two (linked) reasons that the region is forcedto look into new strategies and automatization:

• Labor shortage caused by morepeople rejecting factory jobs.

• Rising wages. Chinese factoryworkers nowadays earn two to six times more than their peers in Thailand orCambodia.

 

11 Although the IFR expects Chinato have more installed manufacturing robots than any other country in 2017, ithas to be mentioned that China’s robot-to-worker ratio is still rather low,about 36 robots per 10,000 factory workers. South Korea employs the mostrobots, with 478 per 10,000 workers, followed by Japan with 315 and Germanywith 292 robots per 10,000 workers.

 

12 Let’s see what the future willbring or how we can shape it. Whether McAfee’s description of a dystopianfuture where the ‘droids are taking our jobs’ will happen, or if we can masterrobots and end up in the more pleasant version of his story. So far in Chinathere seems little evidence that robots are having a big impact on employment.Average urban wages in China rose more than 10% in 2014, and the countryremains on target to create at least 10 million new jobs this year. But giventhe mentioned low robot-to-worker ratio and without assessing the possibilitiesof introducing artificial intelligence (AI) into white collar jobs, it’s tooearly to make any conclusions based on these figures.

 

13 To finish, let’s look again atthe question of whether China will be a leader in robotics. Yes. If you look at the market share ofindustrial robots. No. If youconsider that these Chinese companies are likely to continue to have to sourcetechnology and key parts from foreign manufactures for the coming ten years.Though beyond a decade we don’t dare to make predictions as we’ve seen in thetelecom sector how quickly Huawei was able to catch up.

 

中国会成为机器人领域的领袖吗？

亚柏·凡·埃滕

 

1 本周盛大的世界机器人大会在北京举行，许多报纸和网站报道了机器人和这个领域的市场潜力。

2 但是多年来机器人一直就是笔“大生意”。根据国际机器人联盟（IFR）提供的数据，2014年全球工业机器人市场规模为107亿美元。中国是最大的市场，工业机器人发货量超过57,000个，日本排名第二，美国第三。根据国际机器人联盟预测，中国的销售数字有望继续大幅度提高，预计2018年总量达到150,000台。

3 在过去几十年，中国似乎能不断地提供廉价工人，并以此出名。中国成为新兴的自动化中心同许多关于机器人和全球经济的假想相左。但是，今年早些时候，中国发布了名为“中国制造2025”的国家计划。此计划目的在于使中国工业现代化，非常重视制造工序，包括把劳动密集型的工作转给机器人做。

4 据说，中国将于2015年末或2016年初发布其本土机器人工业五年发展规划（作为中国制造2025的附录）。该规划目标远大：目标到2020年将中国制造的机器人所占市场的份额提高到50%，比目前份额翻一番还要多。

5 2014年，中国工厂使用的工业机器人占全球总量的四分之一（比2013年增长50%还要多），这种增长趋势还会延续。根据国际机器人联盟报道，到2017年中国装备的制造业机器人数量将比任何其他国家都多。

6 目前，工业机器人在全球机器人市场中占主要地位，拥有约80%的市场份额。当前制造业10%的过程采用机器人，但到2025年，这个数字预计将上升到20%。因此，许多公司仍把投资集中在工业机器人的开发上。但很明显，将来服务业机器人的市场将超过工业机器人市场。我们已经看到机器人的运用正在从制造行业扩展到服务行业，除了家用领域，还包括医学和健康保障领域。

7 很有意思的是，人们在大会上看到中国研究者们已经掌握了服务机器人产业链上的所有技术。他们已经开发了各种各样的服务机器人，包括那些能够清扫、烹饪以及帮助老年人和残疾人的机器人。

8 但是，福建省三明市的一家获得政府支持的技术公司总经理认为：中国仍有很长的路要走。他说：“工业机器人的主要部件，如感应器和马达仍需依靠进口，没有几家机器人制造商为大规模生产做好了准备。”

9 新松机器人自动化公司总裁曲道奎认为，全中国有超过1,000家与机器人相关的公司，但是质量——而非数量——是机器人领域的最大挑战。

10 在中国南方的工业中心地带，越来越多的工厂正在开始引进机器人以替代人工。有两个（相关的）原因使该地区被迫探究新策略和自动化：

• 越来越多的人拒绝在工厂工作，从而引发劳动力短缺。

• 涨薪。现在中国产业工人的工资是泰国或柬埔寨工人的2至6倍多。

11 尽管国际机器人联盟预计，到2017年，中国装备的制造业机器人将超过任何其他国家，有一点不得不提：中国的机器人和工人之比率仍然很低，大概是每10,000名工人有36个机器人。韩国使用机器人最多，每10,000名工人有478个机器人，其次是日本，每10,000名工人有315个，第三是德国，每10,000名工人有292个。

12 让我们一起展望未来将带来什么或者我们如何能塑造未来。未来究竟是迈克菲笔下的“机器人夺走我们工作”的反乌托邦，还是以我们主宰机器人而获得美满结局？目前，似乎很少有证据证明机器人正在对中国的就业产生大的影响。2014年，中国城市平均工资增幅超过10%，而今年有望实现其创造至少1,000万个工作岗位的目标。但是考虑到前面提及的机器人相对工人的低比率，而且还没有对人工智能引入白领工作是否可能进行评估，基于这些数据而得出任何结论都为时过早。

13 最后，让我们回头再看一下这个问题：中国是否会成为机器人领域的领袖。如果你看工业机器人的市场份额，答案是肯定的。但如果你考虑这些中国公司在未来10年间仍然继续向外国制造商采购技术和主要部件，答案则是否定的。但是，10年后会怎样我们就不敢预测了，因为我们已经看到华为在通信领域的突飞猛进。