As Robots Replace People, WhereWill Workers Go?

By Nouriel Roubini

 

 

1 Technology innovators and CEOs seem positively giddy nowadays aboutwhat the future will bring. New manufacturing technologies have generatedfeverish excitement about what some see as a Third Industrial Revolution. Inthe years ahead, technological improvements in robotics and automation willboost productivity and efficiency, implying significant economic gains forcompanies. But, unless the proper policies to nurture job growth are put inplace, it remains uncertain whether demand for labor will continue to grow astechnology marches forward.

 

2 Recent technological advances have three biases: they tend to becapital-intensive (thus favoring those who already have financial resources);skill-intensive (thus favoring those who already have a high level of technicalproficiency); and labor-saving (thus reducing the total number of unskilled andsemi-skilled jobs in the economy). The risk is that robotics and automationwill displace workers in blue-collar manufacturing jobs before the dust of theThird Industrial Revolution settles.

 

3 The rapid development of smart software over the last few decadeshas been perhaps the most important force shaping the coming manufacturingrevolution. Software innovation, together with 3D printing technologies, willopen the door to those workers who are educated enough to participate; foreveryone else, however, it may feel as though the revolution is happeningelsewhere. Indeed, the factory of the future may be 1,000 robots and one workermanning them. Even the shop floor can be swept better and cheaper by a Roombarobot than by any worker.

 

4 For the developed countries, this may seem like old news. After all,for the last 30 years, the manufacturing base in Asia’s emerging economies hasbeen displacing that of the old industrial powers of Western Europe and NorthAmerica. But there is no guarantee that gains in service-sector employment willcontinue to offset the resulting job losses in industry.

 

5 For starters, technology is making even many service jobstradable, enabling them to be offshored to Asia and other emerging markets. And,eventually, technology will replace manufacturing and service jobs in emergingmarkets as well.

 

6 Today, for example, a patient in New York may have his MRI sent digitallyto, say, Bangalore, where a highly skilled radiologist reads it for one-quarterof what a New York-based radiologist would cost. But how long will it be beforea computer software can read those images faster, better and cheaper than theradiologist in Bangalore can?

 

7 Likewise, in the next decade, Foxconn, which produces iPhones andother consumer electronics, plans to replace much of its Chinese workforce ofmore than 1.2 million with robots. And soon enough voice recognition softwarewill replace the call centers of Bangalore and Manila.

 

8 Job-reducing technological innovations will affect education, healthcare,government and even transportation. For example, will we still need so manyteachers in the decades to come if the cream of the profession can produceincreasingly sophisticated online courses that millions of students can take?If not, how will all of those former teachers earn a living?

 

9 Governments, too, are shedding labor — particularly governments burdenedby high deficits and debts. And, by transforming how services are provided tothe public, the e-government trend can offset the employment losses withproductivity gains.

 

10 Even transportation is being revolutionized by technology. In amatter of years, driverless cars — courtesy of Google and others — may render millionsof jobs obsolete.

 

11 And, of course technological innovation that is capital-intensiveand labor-saving is one of the factors — together with the relatedwinner-take-all effects — driving the rise in income and wealth inequality.Rising inequality then becomes a drag on demand and growth (as well as a sourceof social and political instability), because it distributes income from thosewho spend more (lower- and middle-income households) to those who save more(high-net-worth individuals and corporate firms).

 

12 Obviously, this is not the first time the world has faced suchproblems, and the past can help serve as a model for resolving them. Late19thand early 20th-century leaders sought to minimize the worst features of industrialization.Child labor was abolished throughout the developed world, working hours andconditions became more humane, and a social safety net was put in place toprotect vulnerable workers and stabilize the (often fragile) macro economy.

 

13 As we begin to seek enlightened solutions to the challenges that theThird Industrial Revolution presents, one overall theme looms large: the gainsfrom technology must be channeled to a broader base of the population than hasbenefited so far. That requires a major educational component. In order tocreate broad-based prosperity, workers need the skills to participate in thebrave new world implied by a digital economy.

 

14 Even that may not be sufficient, in which case it will become necessaryto provide permanent income support to those whose jobs are displaced bysoftware and machines. Here, too, we should attend carefully to the lessons ofthe past.

 

当机器人取代人时，工人将何去何从？

鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼

 

1 谈到未来将带给我们什么，技术创新者和公司执行总裁们似乎已冲昏了头脑。新的制造技术已经使人们兴奋不已，有的人认为这就是第三次工业革命。在未来的几年中，机器人技术和自动化领域的技术改善将提高生产力和效率，这意味着给公司带来巨大的经济收益。但是，除非制定适当的政策造就更多的工作机会，否则，随着技术的进步劳动力需求是否将继续增加仍会不明朗。

2 近期的技术进步有三种倾向：资本密集（从而有利于那些已经拥有资金的人）；技能密集（从而有利于那些已经拥有高水平技能的人）；节约劳动力（从而减少经济中无技能和半技能工作岗位的总量）。其风险是在第三次工业革命尘埃落定前，机器人技术和自动化将取代蓝领制造业工人。

3 过去几十年间迅速发展的智能软件也许已成为左右未来制造业革命的最重要的力量。软件创新加上3D打印技术将为那些受过足够教育的人们提供参与的机会。但是，对其他人来说，这场革命就好像发生在别处。事实上，未来工厂可能有1,000个机器人，但只有一位操纵它们的工人。与任何一位工人相比，Roomba机器人甚至能够把车间地板打扫得更干净而且花费更少。

4 对于发达国家而言，这可能看似旧闻。毕竟在过去30年，亚洲新兴经济体的制造基地一直在取代西欧和北美工业强国的老制造基地。但是无法保证服务领域新增的就业将继续抵消由此带来的工业岗位的流失。

5 首先，技术正让许多服务性工作变得也可转让，使这些工作可以外包到到亚洲和其他海外新兴市场。最终，新技术也将取代新兴市场的制造业和服务业工作岗位。

6 例如，今天纽约的病人可把他的核磁共振图像用数字手段发送到班加罗尔，那里技术高超的放射科医生读片费用仅为纽约放射科医生的四分之一。但是，还得多久，计算机软件就能比班加罗尔的放射科医生读得更快、更好、更便宜呢？

7 同样地，在今后10年间，生产苹果手机和其他消费电子产品的富士康公司计划用机器人替代其总数超过120万的中国劳动力中的相当多的人。不久的将来，语音识别软件将取代位于班加罗尔和马尼拉的呼叫中心。

8 减少工作岗位的技术创新将影响教育、医疗保健、政府，甚至交通。例如，如果教育界的精英能够不断地开设可供成千上万学生选读的优良网络课程，在未来几十年我们还需要如此多的教师吗？如果不需要，那么原来那么多的教师将靠什么谋生呢？

9 政府部门也在减少劳动力——特别是被高赤字和高债务拖累的政府部门。通过改变服务公众的方式，电子政务能够用工作效率的提高来抵消雇员减少带来的负面影响。

10 新技术甚至正在使交通发生革命性的变化。只要再过几年，由谷歌和其他公司提供的无人驾驶汽车可能使几百万份工作不复存在。

11 当然，资本密集型和节约劳动力的技术创新，加上相关的赢者通吃的效果，是加剧收入和财富不均的众多因素之一。而不平等现象的加剧就要拖需求和增长的后腿（也是社会和政治不稳定的源头），因为它拿走消费多的人（中低收入家庭）的收入，转而分配给那些储蓄多的人（高净值个人和公司）。

12 很显然，这不是世界第一次面对这样的问题，过去的经验可以作为解决当前问题的范例。19世纪后期和20世纪初期的领袖们努力使工业化最糟糕的负面影响最小化。童工在所有发达国家被废除，工作时间和工作环境变得更加人性化，社会安全系统建立并运行以保护作为弱势群体的工人以及稳定（经常是脆弱的）宏观经济。

13 当我们开始寻找明智的方法来应对第三次工业革命所带来的挑战时，摆在我们面前的一大主题是技术带来的好处必须输送给基数更大的人群，而不是现在的既得利益者。要做到这点，需要一个重大的教育要素。为了创造大面积繁荣，工人们需要掌握技能投身到由数字经济带来的崭新的世界中。

14 甚至这些也许还不够，必须给那些工作岗位被软件和机器替代的人们提供永久的收入支持。为此，我们也应该仔细研究过去的教训。