In this part, the author introduces Alvin Toffler’s view on conflict, change and the world order.

Possible Answers:

(1) What did Toffler mean when he said “order grows out of chaos”?

He meant that significant change happens as a result of conflict. By conflict, he means “wave” conflicts, that is, conflicts between modes of production.

(2) How does Toffler define “wave”?

Toffler defines waves as major changes in civilization. The first wave came with the development of agriculture (according to historical materialism, the use of iron tools); the second with industry. The third is based on information.

    (3) How does Toffler define the “current conflict”, where by “current” he means 1999, the time of the author’s interview with him?

He holds that the current conflicts are not conflicts between East and West, nor between North and South but between dominantly industrial countries and dominantly agrarian countries plus internal conflicts within countries that are partly one and partly the other.

(4) What is Toffler’s analysis of the current international order?

He holds that the present order is an order that trisects world power. According to him, agrarian nations are at the bottom, knowledge-based economies on the top, with industrialized countries in between.

(5) What do you think of Toffler’s analysis of conflict and the world order?

Toffler holds that conflict takes place between agrarian countries and industrialized countries. But the industrialized countries are also the developed countries, so his analysis is very similar to the conception of a North-South conflict between the developing countries a
nd the industrialized countries. However, to eliminate the political element from the conflict is not in accordance with the real situation and therefore is incorrect. And it is an over-simplification to say that world civilizations today can be divided into three types: agrarian, industrial and knowledge-based. But it may be valid to say that the problems of various civilizations are rooted in their modes of production.

The trisection-of-power concept fails to take into consideration the distribution of political, economic, and military power in the world, hence, it is not a true reflection of the world situation.

    (6) Is it possible that, in the future, small groups might be able to use television to preserve their separate, distinctive cultures and languages?

Perhaps. With many more channels available, costs will be greatly reduced. In the U.S., government licensing insistence on some television access being reserved for broadcasts in the public interest could help a small group, say the Navaho Indians with about 40,000 speakers of their tribal language, to transmit programs in that language. But there are also political and cultural constraints. Some linguists predict that many of the languages used today will become extinct in the not too distant future.

Words and Expressions:

dominant vs predominant; agrarian; outnumber; blue-white-/gold-/pink-collar; aviation; Sputnik; trisection; foster