Text B Trendsin Tourism
Despite regional uncertainties, the world economicand social climate is generally predicted to produce a strong increase intourism over the next 20 years. New markets will emerge due to the changingeconomic conditions, modified consumer behavior and new technologies. Thecomposition of the tourist population will alter, with increasing proportionsof senior citizens, for example. There will be greater emphasis onindividual/self-determined holidays, and on educational and active recreationalpursuits. On one hand, increasing environmental awareness will affect planningpolicies and tourist demand. On the other hand, nature, which is the critical resourceof tourism, will become more scarce and fragile. An ecological, long-termapproach to tourism planning is postulated.
Regionaland Public Sector Policies
The characteristics of attractions at a destinationcan be listed by referring to physical, social, historical and aestheticattributes, among others, but the evaluation of the attractiveness will have torely on some measure of visitor perception. The individual attractions willplay different roles for different visitors; some single attractions areperceived as dominant to certain groups, while others will look at a regionfrom a more holistic（整体的）point of view and combinations of different typesof attractions will, consequently, play the major role.
The tourismindustry is dominated by private firms and small businesses across a broadspectrum of sectors, including transport, accommodation and attractions. However, the public sector has a key role to playin the successful development of tourism in a particular locality. Publicsector intervention is necessary to ensure that the associated benefits oftourism are maximized and any potential problems are minimized for the benefitof the economy, society and environment, as well as for the long-term interestof the tourism industry. Whether the government opts merely for the creation ofa climate conducive to the growth of a successful tourism industry, or decidesto become more actively involved, perhaps even assuming an entrepreneurialrole, intervention by the government should not merely be a manifestation ofpolitical rhetoric, but rather an organized, sustained and flexible approach totourism planning with optimizing its social and economic returns.
Two characteristics of the tourism sector, theconstant dependence of the tourist on those rendering the services and thecurrency foreign tourists bring in, have led governments to become very rapidlyinvolved in this field, involvement which has above all produced specialregulations assuring a close control of the sector' s activities. The governmentcan limit itself to strictly technical or administrative intervention or,conversely, enlarge it to include all aspects of the economy.
EconomicAspects
According to most futurologists, the economicfuture will be characterized by greater amounts of freely disposable income, anincreasing proportion of city dwellers and a further fall in working hours foremployees. Even if it is assumed that the rate of these changes will slow down,experts some 20 years ago anticipated considerable rates of growth for tourismbetween 1980 and 2000:
The WorldTourism Organization (WTO) anticipated an annual growth rate of arrivals incross-border tourism to be between 4.5 and 5.5% .
Half theexperts in a Delphi poll anticipated growth rates in the region of 3-3.5, inother words a doubling of the number of tourist arrivals within 20 years,approximately.
Herman Kahnforecasted that in the year 2000 tourism would be the largest industry and themost important export sector in the world. He calculated that by then expenditureon tourism may well have risen fivefold, corresponding to an annual growth rateof about 8%.
Yet, today, in the traditional industrial countriesthe economic perspective is generally one of greatly decelerated growth andstagnating disposable per capita incomes. The desire to travel, in thesecountries, is approaching saturation（饱和）levels and sensitivity to price levels isincreasing. The limits to tourist expansion are already detectable. Theforecasts mentioned above for growth in tourism, particularly that by HermnaKahn, are not likely to be maintained, at least as far as the traditionalindustrialized nations are concerned. In countries like Switzerland, Sweden andNorway the net travel intensities, which are over 75%, are not likely to increasesignificantly. In several large countries, however, where the variance oftravel intensities between urban and rural areas is large, e. g. France,Germany, UK (net travel intensities between 57 and 60%) , there is still somegrowth potential.
Yet, even if long-haul flights（长途航班）for Europeans will expand less than forecasted, thetrend which will make the Asia-Pacific region the boom area for tourism for thenext century will not be jeopardized, due to the enormous “internal” potentialof that area. Despite recent problems, in southeastern and eastern Asia moreeconomic growth is expected over the next 20 years than anywhere else in theworld. This ‘unfolding fan' of opportunity will spur transnational travel andhotel companies to expand to nearly every major gateway city in theAsia-Pacific region.
Demandand Supply
Even though the volume of travel in theindustrialized countries has grown considerably, the tourist market worldwidehas changed from a seller's market to a buyer's market. On a global scale,competition from new developing destinations and facilities will increasefurther. Significant structural changes currently in progress give a rough ideaof how the situation might appear in 15-20 years time.
On the supply side, there has been a disproportionateincrease in the types of lodging by the “parahotel” business in relation to thetraditional hotel business. In addition, a major proportion of traditionalbusiness have had to develop new product strategies to match the growing demandfor more active holiday. Holiday clubs, parks and villages, and hotels offeringactive leisure pursuits, are experiencing higher than average increases indemand. It is likely that the market share of the traditional hotel types willcontinue to shrink.
There will be an increase in the willingness tospend holidays in cheaper accommodation, with a lower volume of servicesconsumed. A price-elastic tourist demand need not necessarily imply an end toall travel—after all, travel as such has becomeclose to being a “basic need”— but it is more likely to result in demand forcheaper holidays. Thus, the market share of low-price accommodation willprobably rise. If, as expected, the price elasticity of tourist demandincreases, we can look forward to further significant shifts in market sharesamong various countries.
Increasing customer sophistication will have animpact on all product development throughout the industry. There will be anincreased requirement for high standards of product design, efficiency andsafety. This will be achieved through strong branding and tailoring the productmore closely to the needs of specific market segments. Tourist productinnovation is more likely to be about unpackaging rather than packaging,providing more individual attention within a number of price bands. Even so,package holidays are not going to disappear. Indeed, they may increase innumber as developing countries come into the market. The price-based marketshare battle between the major operators has---in reality or in perception---loweredthe quality of the holidays on offer.(1167 words)
Exercises:
A: Read the passage and answer the followingquestions.
How will tourism change in the future？
What dominates tourism industry nowadays？
What makes governments become involved in tourism？
What are the characteristics of future economy？
Why will tourism in traditional industrial countriesnot be likely to increase significantly？
Given the changes in demands by tourists, what shouldtraditional business do？
Why will more people choose cheaper accommodation？
What lowered the quality of holidays？
B. Translate the following sentences into Chinese.
The tourism industry is dominated by private firmsand small businesses across a broad spectrum of sectors, including transport,accommodation and attractions.
The government can limit itself to strictlytechnical or administrative intervention or, conversely, enlarge it to includeall aspects of the economy.
The World Tourism Organization (WTO) anticipated anannual growth rate of arrivals in cross-border tourism to be between 4.5 and5.5% .
On the supply side, there has been adisproportionate increase in the types of lodging by the “parahotel” businessin relation to the traditional hotel business.
A price-elastic tourist demand need not necessarilyimply an end to all travel-after all, travel as such has become close to beinga “basic need”---but it is more likely to result in demand for cheaperholidays.
