个人介绍
Applied Statistics and Econometric Models

主讲教师:吕周洋

教师团队:共3

  • 吕周洋
  • 黄德春
  • 陈军飞
学校: 河海大学
课程编号: 2015SX01
Introduction
Statistical thinking now dominates almost every field in science, including social science such as business, economics, management, and marketing. This means that we have to deal almost daily with data gathering, management, and analysis.
This course aims at providing a comprehensive overview of main topics in Statistics and econometric models for international students at the graduate level. It contains 17 lectures, including data description, distribution, estimation, hypothesis testing, regression, time-series analysis, forecasting, etc, with students discussion.
Team

吕周洋

职称:副教授

单位:河海大学

部门:商学院

黄德春

职称:教授

单位:河海大学

部门:商学院

陈军飞

职称:教授

单位:河海大学

部门:商学院

Course Outline



Timetable

LECTURE1 Describing Data: Graphical    ……………(2 Class Hours)

LECTURE2 Describing Data: Numerical    ……………(2 Class Hours)

LECTURE3 Probability              ……………(2 Class Hours)

LECTURE4 Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions

                           ……………(2 Class Hours)

LECTURE5 Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions

                           ……………(2 Class Hours)

LECTURE6 Sampling and Sampling Distributions   ……………(2 Class Hours)

LECTURE7 Estimation: Single Population       ……………(2 Class Hours)

LECTURE8 Estimation: Additional Topics       ……………(2 Class Hours)

LECTURE9 Hypothesis Testing: Single Population  ……………(2 ClassHours)

LECTURE10 Hypothesis Testing: Additional Topics  ……………(2 ClassHours)

LECTURE11 Simple Regression              ……………(2 Class Hours)

LECTURE12 Multiple & Nonlinear Regression     ……………(2 ClassHours)

LECTURE13 Analysis of Categorical Data      ……………(2 Class Hours)

LECTURE14 Time-Series Analysis            ……………(2 Class Hours)

LECTURE15 Statistical Decision Theory        ……………(2 Class Hours)

LECTURE16 Forecasting                   ……………(2 Class Hours)

LECTURE17 Students Discussion              ……………(2 Class Hours)

 


References and Other Resources

Textbooks

1.  Statistics for Business and Economics. Paul Newbold, ISBN: 978-0-13-274565-9

2. Probability, Statistics and Econometrics. Oliver Linton,ISBN:978-0-12-810495-8

3. Essential Statistics, Regression, and Econometrics. Gary Smith, ISBN: 978-0-12-803459-0


Journals

1. Journal of the American Statistical Association

2. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B

3. Annals of Statistics

4. Annual review of statistics and its application

5. Journal of Econometrics


Useful Links

1. https://www.amstat.org/

2. http://fenstats.eu/

3. https://www.econometricsociety.org/

4. https://appliedeconometrics.org/

Questions and Answers

Question

What is the difference between type I vs type II error?

Answer

A type I error occurs when the null hypothesis is true, butis rejected. A type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is false, buterroneously fails to be rejected.

 

Question

What is a statistical interaction?

Answer

Basically, an interaction is when the effect of one factor(input variable) on the dependent variable (output variable) differs amonglevels of another factor.

 

Question

What is selection bias?

Answer

Selection (or ‘sampling’) bias occurs in an ‘active,’ sensewhen the sample data that is gathered and prepared for modeling hascharacteristics that are not representative of the true, future population ofcases the model will see. That is, active selection bias occurs when a subsetof the data are systematically (i.e., non-randomly) excluded from analysis.

 

Question

What is an example of a data set with a non-Gaussiandistribution?

Answer

The Gaussian distribution is part of the Exponential familyof distributions, but there are a lot more of them, with the same sort of easeof use, in many cases, and if the person doing the machine learning has a solidgrounding in statistics, they can be utilized where appropriate.

 

Question

What is the Binomial Probability Formula?

Answer

The binomial distribution consists of the probabilities ofeach of the possible numbers of successes on N trials for independent eventsthat each have a probability of π (the Greek letter pi) of occurring.

 

 

Question

What is the importance of Central Limit Theorem

Answer

Suppose that we are interested in estimating the averageheight among all people. Collecting data for every person in the world isimpossible. While we can’t obtain a height measurement from everyone in thepopulation, we can still sample some people. The question now becomes, what canwe say about the average height of the entire population given a single sample.The Central Limit Theorem addresses this question exactly.

 

 

Question

How many branches of Econometrics are there?

Answer

Econometrics is divided into theoretical econometrics andapplied econometrics. While theoretical econometrics includes the developmentof appropriate methods for the measurement economic relationships which are notmeant for controlled experiments conducted inside the laboratories, appliedeconometrics includes the application of econometric method to specificbranches of economic theory and problems like demand and supply, production,investment, consumption, etc. It involves data analysis and forecasting.


Lectures
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